As 90-95% of new forex traders lose money within the first 3-6 months this article helps to guide new forex traders by asking 5 questions that the forex trader needs to know prior to back-testing their forex system.
Let us jump right in...
1. What data type are you using (or going to use)?
I know this sounds strange, especially if you have experience from another market such as stocks as their generally is only one type of data source available. However, in the forex market you can have up to 4 different data types: bid, ask, mid and indicative. Each have their own little nuances.
If you would like to know more about the data types then visit the article written about the perils of indicative prices. As this will save me from having to repeat the information again and boring those who've already read it.
So, if you know you have indicative prices then you know you're in for some good results! However, if you have any of the other three you need to be careful on how stop and limit orders are placed.
As an example: If we had bid price history and we were looking to place a buy entry stop at 0830 EST according to the day's high, then we know that the bid price will not accurately reflect what the actual price of our order should be. You would have noticed that if you placed a buy entry stop at the exact same price as that of the day's high you would have entered prematurely - you would have entered 4 or 5 pips before the high or the low of the day was touched (the exact same amount as the spread your broker offers!).
This leads me into the next most important question...
2. What spread is your broker offering on the currencies you are bask-testing?
You need to know this as this can help you set your slippage settings on each currency.
As our example in question 1 pointed out. We found that our buy at the day's high method did not exactly work because we bought at the BID PRICE high, not the ASK PRICE high - the price that we need when we place our order TO BUY.
Therefore, we enter in a slippage setting representing the spread that would be exhibited by this trade on this currency.
But knowing at what price to buy is only half the problem... how do we know what quantity to buy?
3. What margin does your broker offer?
If we know at what price to buy our currency at we need to inform our broker on what quantity to buy to fulfill the order. We only know what quantity to buy by the margin that the brokerage firm offers.
Most brokerage firms offer 100:1 leverage, however, some firms offer mini accounts with 200:1 leverage, others only 50:1 leverage.
Find out the margin required.
4. What restrictions does your broker impose?
Now, I don't just mean margin and spread restrictions as I have mentioned above. These are important in their own right, what you need to find out are the details.
This is probably the most important question of all as the fine line between success and failure can be found in the details. Now you can have this questioned by one of two ways: 1. You can find out through experience (generally the most expensive way unless done through the demo account!); or 2. You ask your broker (the cheapest and best way).
Why is this so important? I hear you ask. Well let's say you have a system that trades any gaps that might form on Sunday at 1700 EST, but your broker does not open until 1730 EST. You either need to factor this restriction in to your system, or move onto another system completely. Or, you may have a system that has 10 pip stops, but you find out that your broker will only let you place 15 pip stops from your initial entry price. Once again you will need to change your system to see whether it still performs well, or throw out your system (or change your broker)!
In fact one of the most devastating restrictions imposed by FXCM is that they do not accept stop entry orders if price never happens to trade at your entry stop price! FXCM will honor and "take the loss" of your OPEN stop positions, but if the liquidity is not there and price has shot straight through your stop price then you will miss out. This can have disastrous effects on your system results as you are left wondering on trades where you made good returns - "Would FXCM have got me in?". You may want to read of some of the quirks I use when placing entry stop orders on FXCM that could be of huge benefit to you to help you possibly get around this problem.
The restrictions by your broker are only half your systems' success, you also need to find out about another more important restriction... yourself. This leads me to the final point...
5. What restrictions do you have?
This is a vitally important question. Most people test their systems and fall in love with the results but find when they trade their system they have lost their account and that most of the best signals occurred while they were sound asleep!
As the forex market is a 24 hour market, you need to put into place restrictions in your system that will be realisticly conducted by you during the course of a normal trading day. There is no use operating a trailing stop method that changes your stop points during times when you are asleep and cannot possibly do so.
I hope this article has made you aware of some of the important things that need to be known prior to testing your system.
Article written by Ryan Sheehy
Jumat, 11 Juli 2008
As 90-95% of new forex traders lose money within the first 3-6 months this article helps to guide new forex traders by asking 5 questions that the forex trader needs to know prior to back-testing their forex system.
Q1: When you consider that the foreign exchange market has become the world's largest financial market, with over $1.5 trillion USD traded daily, where does it go from here?
A1:The FX market is unique, in the UK there is no central exchange, we trade via the inter bank market. With more and more private individuals taking up margin trading and new forex brokers setting up, I can only see the market grow in the near future.
Q2: Other than great liquidity, what are the principal benefits attached to the forex market?
A2: There is less to consider when trading the forex markets, there are only a number of variables that affect the pricing.
Main advantages include
Forex Market allows 24 hour trading
Greater leverage - with most brokers offering 100 - 1,
Less starting capital required,
More Liquidity - day trading has to have enough volume to make it worth our while. The currency market is more liquid than all the world stock markets put together. Currencies are always in action,
Free trading systems
Better for shorting - There are artificial controls built into the market to prevent it from going down too fast. The reason is that we live in a biased world that likes to see things go up instead of down. One of these artificial contraptions is the "uptick rule," which comes into play when shorting stocks, making it more difficult to sell a stock short than to buy it. This is unheard of in the currency market. Selling currencies short while day trading is just as easy as buying them.
Ideal for Short Term Traders -
Q3: Limited market access, liquidity issues-after market hours, commission fees, capital requirements and short selling/stop restrictions are just some of the issues investors face when considering other markets. Given that the forex market removes many of these traditional barriers and therefore does not restrict the forex traders' ability to make a trade at the right time, are we likely to see an increase in trading volumes this year?
A3: With all these advantages, traders are finding it hard not to trade currencies, online trading volumes across all products is increasing at a substantial rate, however FX trading, predominantly amongst retail investors is becoming very popular.
Q4: There is stiff competition amongst online forex service providers for retail forex traders with some claiming to offer the same degree of technical analysis enjoyed by the world's largest banks and institutional traders. Is this possible?
A4: Technical Analysis has come a long way, more and more forex provides now have partnerships with firms who provide analysis. However the banks still have an advantage, the markets are still not under perfectly competitive economic model. The banks will always have access to information that is not readily available, ISX FX currently sources its information from a number of banks to fill this gap.
Q5: Do you subscribe to the theory that forex is less volatile than stocks because the market is much deeper?
A5: As a bet on the direction of a national economy, no currency has ever dropped 25 percent in a day, or imploded as rapidly and completely as an Enron or a Parmalat. In the wake of those scandals, many companies are meting out information more cautiously, making it harder to get the real "scoop" on stocks one problem of trading with too-high leverage is that one piece of surprise news can wipe out one's capital. If you treat forex trading like a business, including proper money management, you have a better chance of success."
Q6: U.S. interest rates-decade lows; global trade wars and terrorism fears have dominated the headlines recently. What impact has this had on retail volumes?
A6: The above factors have all led to a decline in the dollar. This coupled with tighter regulation of brokers has given investors more confidence in brokers. Also the stock market crash has driven individuals to look at the profit opportunities offered by forex.
Q7: Stateside the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has brought 58 actions against firms, since its new powers were awarded in 2000. Given that certain brokers continue to abuse the system, with investor money sometimes not being traded in the markets promised. What can investors do protect themselves?
A7: The retail forex market is in essence betting, as with any bookmaker there is always a risk that you will not get your winnings, or the odds will be highly stacked against you. With tighter regulation and increased competition, this risk of default has largely disappeared. The risk of price manipulation still exists and this will never really go away. Investors need to ensure that they have an independent price source and trade with a broker who offers true one click dealing.
Most brokers work on the basis of the law of large numbers, acting like the bucket shops of 50 years ago, they do not hedge any positions and are directly competing against there clients. This will always lead to price manipulation and further actions by authorities will inevitably be taken.
Q8: What is this best way for "currency rookies" to get involved in the market?
A8: Like with any new form of trading you need to know what you are doing, especially as there is margin involved. Take all the time you need to learn this new trading skill well -- practice everything you learn with a demo account before you consider going 'live' with your own money. Investors should read books, attend seminars and paper trade until they are comfortable with there strategy.
By Rafik Patel
The first and perhaps most important "secret" is to realize that your methodology or approach (no matter how good) is only part of being a highly successful trader. This applies to any trading style including, day trading, swing trading or position trading.
The simple fact is that a bad trader can screw up a fantastic trading system. Conversely a talented trader can take a mediocre strategy and make money with it.
Why? Please read on and I will explain.
Many traders/investors that I have talked with think that to be a "Super-Trader" that they must possess some type of highly advanced trading techniques or software along with nerves of steel and a highly developed intuitive feel for the markets. In addition they think that these elite group, have some "inside information" that they don't.
You will be relieved to know that the above is not necessary. There are actually only a few things that separate traders who consistently make money and those who don't.
And here they are?
* Skilled traders find a strategy or market pattern that offers a high probability for success. They make money by exploiting this edge over and over again.
* Skilled traders never deviate from their methodology or "wing it".
* Skilled traders never enter a trade without a entry and exit strategy. They know exactly when and where to cut their losses as well as taking profits.
* Skilled traders never ever let a winning trade turn into a losing one. The easiest way to ensure that this doesn't happen is to place a protective stop at or a few ticks in the money once your position is up several points.
* Skilled traders never hope, pray or wish that their stock would go up. They understand that when they are wrong they are wrong and the best thing to do is cut their losses short.
* Skilled traders never trade with their emotions. They don't allow themselves to get caught up in the latest and greatest investment hype.
* Skilled traders always have one goal in mind: To preserve their capital at all costs. They do this by never taking on too large of a position. A good rule of thumb to adhere to is never use more than 5% of your funds on any one trade. This way in the worst-case scenario the stock could drop to zero and your account would not be severely affected.
* Skilled traders never get too greedy. There is an old saying that "Pigs gets fed and hogs get slaughtered". These traders don't try to make one big trade that will turn them into instant millionaires. They don't try to hit home runs, instead they understand that it is better to keep hitting singles and making smaller consistent profits.
* Skilled traders enter and exit trades swiftly and decisively.
* Skilled traders listen to no one else's opinion concerning the market or particular trade they are in.
* Skilled traders are often contrarians. They will be buying when others are too scared to and sell when the crowd starts buying.
That's it, the secrets to making big money in the markets. Perhaps that is a bit of a let down as you were hoping for something a bit more esoteric and complicated.
Let me assure you that if you follow the above principles that you will take your trading skills and profits to a level that you never thought possible!
This article is courtesy of Dr. Jeffrey Wilde, a trading veteran with 15 years of experience in all major markets. He is a trading coach to over 1400 traders in 38 countries.
For those unfamiliar with the term, FOREX (FOReign EXchange market), refers to an international exchange market where currencies are bought and sold. The Foreign Exchange Market that we see today began in the 1970's, when free exchange rates and floating currencies were introduced. In such an environment only participants in the market determine the price of one currency against another, based upon supply and demand for that currency.
FOREX is a somewhat unique market for a number of reasons. Firstly, it is one of the few markets in which it can be said with very few qualifications that it is free of external controls and that it cannot be manipulated. It is also the largest liquid financial market, with trade reaching between 1 and 1.5 trillion US dollars a day. With this much money moving this fast, it is clear why a single investor would find it near impossible to significantly affect the price of a major currency. Furthermore, the liquidity of the market means that unlike some rarely traded stock, traders are able to open and close positions within a few seconds as there are always willing buyers and sellers.
Another somewhat unique characteristic of the FOREX money market is the variance of its participants. Investors find a number of reasons for entering the market, some as longer term hedge investors, while others utilize massive credit lines to seek large short term gains. Interestingly, unlike blue-chip stocks, which are usually most attractive only to the long term investor, the combination of rather constant but small daily fluctuations in currency prices, create an environment which attracts investors with a broad range of strategies.
How FOREX Works
Transactions in foreign currencies are not centralized on an exchange, unlike say the NYSE, and thus take place all over the world via telecommunications. Trade is open 24 hours a day from Sunday afternoon until Friday afternoon (00:00 GMT on Monday to 10:00 pm GMT on Friday). In almost every time zone around the world, there are dealers who will quote all major currencies. After deciding what currency the investor would like to purchase, he or she does so via one of these dealers (some of which can be found online). It is quite common practice for investors to speculate on currency prices by getting a credit line (which are available to those with capital as small as $500), and vastly increase their potential gains and losses. This is called marginal trading.
Marginal trading is simply the term used for trading with borrowed capital. It is appealing because of the fact that in FOREX investments can be made without a real money supply. This allows investors to invest much more money with fewer money transfer costs, and open bigger positions with a much smaller amount of actual capital. Thus, one can conduct relatively large transactions, very quickly and cheaply, with a small amount of initial capital. Marginal trading in an exchange market is quantified in lots. The term "lot" refers to approximately $100,000, an amount which can be obtained by putting up as little as 0.5% or $500.
EXAMPLE: You believe that signals in the market are indicating that the British Pound will go up against the US Dollar. You open 1 lot for buying the Pound with a 1% margin at the price of 1.49889 and wait for the exchange rate to climb. At some point in the future, your predictions come true and you decide to sell. You close the position at 1.5050 and earn 61 pips or about $405. Thus, on an initial capital investment of $1,000, you have made over 40% in profits. (Just as an example of how exchange rates change in the course of a day, an average daily change of the Euro (in Dollars) is about 70 to 100 pips.)
When you decide to close a position, the deposit sum that you originally made is returned to you and a calculation of your profits or losses is done. This profit or loss is then credited to your account.
Investment Strategies: Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis
The two fundamental strategies in investing in FOREX are Technical Analysis or Fundamental Analysis. Most small and medium sized investors in financial markets use Technical Analysis. This technique stems from the assumption that all information about the market and a particular currency's future fluctuations is found in the price chain. That is to say, that all factors which have an effect on the price have already been considered by the market and are thus reflected in the price. Essentially then, what this type of investor does is base his/her investments upon three fundamental suppositions. These are: that the movement of the market considers all factors, that the movement of prices is purposeful and directly tied to these events, and that history repeats itself. Someone utilizing technical analysis looks at the highest and lowest prices of a currency, the prices of opening and closing, and the volume of transactions. This investor does not try to outsmart the market, or even predict major long term trends, but simply looks at what has happened to that currency in the recent past, and predicts that the small fluctuations will generally continue just as they have before.
A Fundamental Analysis is one which analyzes the current situations in the country of the currency, including such things as its economy, its political situation, and other related rumors. By the numbers, a country's economy depends on a number of quantifiable measurements such as its Central Bank's interest rate, the national unemployment level, tax policy and the rate of inflation. An investor can also anticipate that less quantifiable occurrences, such as political unrest or transition will also have an effect on the market. Before basing all predictions on the factors alone, however, it is important to remember that investors must also keep in mind the expectations and anticipations of market participants. For just as in any stock market, the value of a currency is also based in large part on perceptions of and anticipations about that currency, not solely on its reality.
Make Money with Currency Trading on FOREX
FOREX investing is one of the most potentially rewarding types of investments available. While certainly the risk is great, the ability to conduct marginal trading on FOREX means that potential profits are enormous relative to initial capital investments. Another benefit of FOREX is that its size prevents almost all attempts by others to influence the market for their own gain. So that when investing in foreign currency markets one can feel quite confident that the investment he or she is making has the same opportunity for profit as other investors throughout the world. While investing in FOREX short term requires a certain degree of diligence, investors who utilize a technical analysis can feel relatively confident that their own ability to read the daily fluctuations of the currency market are sufficiently adequate to give them the knowledge necessary to make informed investments.
By Rich McIver
There are lot's of Forex signals providers out there. New Forex traders might be thinking of looking for a reliable Forex signals provider. Is there any reliable Forex signals providers available?
Personally, I will say do not pay for Forex signals. Think about it - if a Forex signals provider sells Forex signals for living, you can doubt their Forex trading skills? Or else if they are pretty good in Forex trading and making lot's of profit, I am wondering why do they still bother to sell Forex signals for money. Thus, what would be the value of such Forex signals providers? The answer is ZERO.
There are Forex traders who have been relying on Forex signals arguing those Forex signals providers really help them making money in Forex trading. These Forex traders can even show their Forex trading logs as evidence. After some though, I came out with the assumption that assuming I am the owner of a Forex signals provider, in order for my business to be in black, obviously I need some satisfying customers......
By Alvin Han
Could it be possible that you are staring right into the most spectacular financial opportunity of the century? Operation: Iraqi Freedom will undoubtedly be a war marked in history for loss and tragedy, American victory, and the rise of a nation with a new democratic government. But could it also be a war historically remembered for the financial opportunity it created for the sharp investors who keenly recognized an ephemeral chance at the right time?
The War on Iraq ended with a nation placed on the footstool of many new operations. An old dictator was removed; a new government was instilled, and the old currency, each note stamped with the face of the now powerless Saddam Hussein, was suddenly valueless and burned in the streets by American soldiers. In its place entered a new currency, beautifully created with the input of the people and history of Iraq.
The United States funded this new currency, artistically crafted by the De La Rue, the world's premier currency printers. Unveiled during a press conference in the capitol city of Bagdad, the new Iraqi currency was introduced. A historic university, erected in the thirteenth century, is etched into the one thousand dinar bills. A serene waterfall graces the front of the periwinkle five thousand dinar notes. And a humble, hardworking farmer holds up a sheaf of wheat on the most substantial bill of all: the twenty five thousand dinar note.
Twenty five thousand dinars! That sounds like a huge value allotted to a single bill of currency. But in fact, today, this note is only worth 17.12 US dollars! Today, the average American's savings account could make them a millionaire in Iraq.
But what does this mean? How does this present such an outrageous financial opportunity? In 1990, prior to the Gulf War and before any sanctions were placed on Iraq, the Iraqi dinar was equivalent to approximately $3.40. And prior to Operation: Iraqi Freedom, the Iraqi dinar still maintained a value of about 30 cents. That's about three hundred times what it's worth today.
The United States and several other nations are in the process of taking every measure possible to rebuild Iraq. The country is gaining stability, and could soon be in its way to becoming an independent and prosperous nation. What would this mean for the value of the Iraqi currency? Certainly it would mean a rise in its value. It could go back to what it was worth before the war, or more. And that would mean an unbelievable return for anyone who invested in it today. It could mean thousands, hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars for someone who had a million dinars today.
The value of the Iraqi economy has nearly doubled since the capture of Saddan Hussein. This has many investors predicting that the dinar will continue to rise in value as well. Even without help from other nations, with the world's second largest oil reserve and the world's largest gas reserve, it is abundantly clear that Iraq has the resources available to expand and become an extremely prosperous nation. In fact, economists and investors are speculating that Iraq has the potential to become among the wealthiest nations in the world.
Today you can take advantage of this potential and be part of those that benefit from Iraq's success the most. Purchasing the Iraqi dinar at its most vulnerable point in history could mean a fortune in the near future. This means nothing short of a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for today's forward-thinking investors.
Learn more about this unique opportunity and how to purchase the dinar at www.Iraqi-Dinar.com with American Trading Company.
By Sakina A. Walsh
Have you heard the wise saying that a trader who fails to plan, plans to fail? I have, and I was once that trader! However, did you know that even though traders who have constructed a plan, which incorporates their trading stategy (their "edge"), they have a plan that is likely to fail?
If we look at all traders who participate in the market: we have one group that fails to plan and therefore plans to fail; another group whose plan is failed; and a third group who properly plans and therefore does not fail.
Is it any wonder that the success rate for forex traders is so slim?
Well it doesn't have to be.
Here's a list of reasons why those whose plan is destined for failure fail:
1. They become emotionally attached to their ideas about how the market should be with minimal or inadequate testing;
2. They fall in love with their back-tested net profit results without fully understanding other key statistical data;
3. They don't admit they're plan is wrong.
Let's explore each point in a little more detail.
1. Becoming emotionally attached to your ideas without adequate results
Most new traders when they realize the importance of obtaining a trading plan and sticking to that plan immediately begin to use the knowledge they have been taught and haphazardly throw it all together into what they deem their "trading plan".
When they are questioned on whether they have a trading plan most of these traders answer with an unequivocal "Yes!".
Most of these traders are destined for failure because their strategy is untested. They rely on blind faith to guide them through the trading jungle to make their untold millions. Would you walk from one length of the Amazon jungle to the other blind-folded? Of course not! You'll have to watch out for all the snakes, tarantulas, and other creepy things that go bump in the night, so why would you approach trading in the same fashion? I mean all you're really doing is placing the blind-fold on your capital!
Why do traders do this?
Because it's easy. That's right... it's easy. They don't need to learn a computer language to type their system into some piece of software that will take them the better part of 6 months to a year to learn, and they don't have to spend any money on buying historical data. Therefore it's easy and it's cheap and it also conserves time!
So does success meet lazy people like this?
Not many! However I will admit that it does meet a fortunate few - only those lucky enough to start their trading during roaring markets where even a monkey can make money! To repeat again: don't wear the blind-fold. Your success may be great at the start, but given time and trades, you'll be the one out of the game - having depleted all your capital.
So what do you do if you KNOW that your method is untested?
If you have the time, the money and the learning capacity I would strongly encourage you to purchase some back-testing software (such as Wealth-Lab Developer), acquire some forex data, ask heaps of questions on the Wealth-Lab forum on how to code your ideas and within 3-6 months you'll be safely coding your own forex system and testing adequately.
If you do not have the time, the money nor the learning capacity I would strongly suggest that you manually write down your system into clearly defined steps that you MUST follow. Then, after opening a DEMO forex account you would trade your system according to the rules you have set out. Trading your rules until about 20 trades have been completed.
After traders obtain their results from their testing period they unfortunately look at only one figure and make a rash conclusion about the system based on that one performance figure, namely, the net profit. This then leads us into the next problem of why traders plans are failed prior to placing their first live trade...
2. They fall in love with the net profit result and no longer question it any further!
The net profit is only one statistic among thousands, however, to keep things simple we will look at the top 3 results that you need to make sure you fully understand.
Here are the other statistical pieces of data that you should look at when your system has completed its testing period:
I. How many trades did it have? If you have made a nice profit, but have only had 3 trades during the testing period you do not have a sufficient sample space to arrive at any safe conclusions. Can you imagine what would happen to Neil Armstrong if NASA had only done 3 computations on how they would arrive on the moon??!! If it's not good for NASA then it's probably not good for you either, however, as NASA do zillions of computations you would only need to conduct about 20 trades as the bare minimum before you can arrive at any safe conclusions;
II. What was your money management procedure during the testing phase? This is by far the most important point, however, you need to make sure your system is properly working prior to even embarking on this difficult area (hence the reason why it is a CLOSE second to the above point). Be sure you fully understand what I am about to explain (read it several times to absorb it if need be)... If you test a method whereby you rely on a percentage amount of capital on a trade you can be biasing your results!
Let us look at the following comparison sheet where we plot 21 trades with their pip return (we'll assume that each pip = US$1), and compare the returns against using 10 contracts per trade, 10% capital per trade, or 2% risk per trade...
Example Trade Sheet
Now as you can see from the results they can easily be doctored according to the different type of money management technique you use and what variable you decide to use it on (i.e. who is to say that we not use 20 contracts per trade, or 20% capital, or 5% risk per trade - all of these would inflate the net return figures).
It is best when you trade to stay at a fixed quantity. If you use any results that require a percentage calculation of the equity balance prior to the trade quantity being calculated you will BIAS the last trades more than the trades at the start. Hence, using a fixed quantity throughout the entire sample is one of the true indications of whether your system is profitable or not.
III. What was the drawdown? This is the largest peak to trough distance on your equity curve. In other words, if you were to enter in on the day the equity curve made a peak, how much would you have lost if you bailed out at the lowest point? To test this manually you would obtain an equity curve peak trace how far the equity curve goes down until it moves higher that the peak you started from - the lowest point made between these two points will be your trough figure which you will then subtract from your starting peak figure. The figure with the largest % loss would be your drawdown.
You would then need to look at this drawdown figure and determine whether or not it fits your risk profile. Would you be okay mentally if your account was down the drawdown % figure? If not, then you're going to have to re-create another system. As a rule I don't like systems that generate more than 30% drawdown.
One other statistic that incorporates drawdown that I like to check to determine whether the system is profitable or not is the recovery factor. The recovery factor divides the net profit by the drawdown (without the negative sign). As an example, if the net profit were $5,659 and the drawdown were -$3,542 dividing the net profit by the drawdown would result in a recovery factor of 1.597 (get rid of the minus sign). I generally prefer systems to have this statistic above 3.
So even though we have created our system that fits our personality and risk tolerance level well trades can still fail by not heeding the third and final statement...
3. Don't fall in love with the system
Most traders once they have designed a system cannot believe that their system is making a loss, or worse yet, a loss greater than the system's historical drawdown.
So, to combat this they dig their head in the sand hoping that the problem will go away. Just as trades fall in love with their position, at their own peril, falling in love with their system is also to their detriment.
Treat this as a business with your system as one of your salesmen. If the salesman is costing more than he is bringing in then you need to fire him and find another one.
How do you know if your system is no good?
As a rule I look at the historical drawdown of my system and add 10%. As an example, if my system had historical drawdown of 20% once the system reached 20% x 1.1 = 22% I would stop trading this system and move onto another. And sometimes you can still trade the same system, just with different variables, or a minor tweak.
Be sure that you fully understand the implications presented to you in this article. Trading is a business, therefore conduct it like one, as it is one of the most difficult endeavors you could ever undertake.
By bRyan Sheehy